Willem II are expected to line up in their usual 4-3-3, with a compact midfield three designed to squeeze the space between the lines. The wide forwards will tuck in to make the pitch small when Fortuna have the ball, then spring wide on the counter. It is a shape built for exactly this kind of opponent — one that wants to play through the middle and can be dragged into a midfield dogfight.

Fortuna Sittard will likely set up in a 4-2-3-1, with the double pivot looking to dictate tempo and the number ten drifting into the half-spaces. The problem is that Willem II's midfield three can match them man-for-man in the centre, cutting off the supply lines to the lone striker. If Fortuna's full-backs push high, they leave themselves exposed to the counter — and Willem II have the legs to punish that.

Set-pieces could be decisive. Willem II will target the near post and the second ball, knowing Fortuna can be rattled by physicality in the box. The game state we expect is a cagey first half, with Willem II growing into it and Fortuna becoming increasingly frustrated. The longer it stays level, the more the home side believe.