Dunkerque kicked off their Ligue 2 campaign with a bang — a 4-2 home win over Grenoble at Stade Marcel-Tribut. That's four goals, a statement of intent, and a reminder that this little coastal club from the north can hurt you. But look closer. They shipped two at home. Against a Grenoble side that won't set the division alight. There's a soft underbelly here, and Montpellier, even in transition, have the pedigree to poke at it.

Montpellier are the fallen giants of this tie. Relegated from Ligue 1, they're now scrapping in Ligue 2, and that's a dangerous animal. Their recent fixture list shows a trip to Nancy on August 14 — a game the market gave them a 42% chance of winning, with odds around 2.6. That's not overwhelming, but it tells you they're still respected. They're not a side that's been written off. They have quality in the squad, players who've performed at the top level, and a point to prove. After a season of humiliation, this is where they rebuild. Momentum is a strange thing in football — Dunkerque have it after that 4-2, but Montpellier have the hunger of the wounded.

Dunkerque's win was at home, and they'll fancy their chances again in front of their own fans. But the step up in class is real. Grenoble are mid-table fodder; Montpellier are a sleeping giant with a point to prove. The form book says Dunkerque are flying, but the class book says Montpellier are the better side. We're backing the away side to at least avoid defeat, and that's the smart play here.