Both sides are expected to line up in a 3-4-2-1, which sets up a fascinating mirror-image midfield dogfight. Hoeneß will want his wing-backs high and his two tens — likely Undav among them — drifting into the half-spaces to overload Dortmund's back three. But that is exactly where Kovac's structure is strongest. With Bellingham and Nmecha sitting in the double pivot, Dortmund can screen the central lanes and force Stuttgart wide, where the delivery has to be perfect against Anton and Schlotterbeck. Those two are not just defenders; they are aggressive front-foot ball-winners who will step into midfield and break up play before it starts.

The key zone is the space behind Stuttgart's wing-backs. If Hoeneß's side commit bodies forward, Dortmund have the perfect counter-attacking profile: Nwaneri's direct running, Silva's movement between the lines, and Guirassy's ability to hold the ball up and bring others in. Stuttgart's makeshift back three — missing Zagadou and Jaquez — will be stretched by that trio. Set-pieces are another lever: Dortmund's height through Anton, Schlotterbeck and Guirassy makes them a genuine threat from dead balls, and Stuttgart's disrupted defensive unit has not had time to build the automatic understanding needed to defend them.

The game state matters. Stuttgart will start fast — they have to, in front of their own fans — but the longer it stays level, the more the match tilts Dortmund's way. Kovac's side are comfortable absorbing pressure and striking on the transition, and with the bench options at his disposal, he can change the tempo late on. Stuttgart's recent habit of losing league games they are expected to be competitive in is a warning sign; once they concede first, the anxiety in the MHP Arena is palpable.