Stevenage are still searching for their first League One win of the season, and that hunger is exactly what we want to back here. Alex Revell's side have been tough to break down at the Lamex Stadium, with the 2.5 line not covered in 15 of their last 20 home games — this is a team that grinds, suffocates, and makes you earn every inch. They've had back-to-back wins in pre-season friendlies, so the defensive structure is there, even if the league points haven't arrived yet. The home crowd will be restless after a slow start, but that energy can turn into a fortress mentality. Oxford, meanwhile, are still licking wounds from a Carabao Cup first-round exit and needed a late equaliser to salvage a 2-2 draw at home to MK Dons in their league opener. Aaron Ramsey's side look vulnerable on the road — their last two away games have stayed under 2.5 goals, which tells you they don't travel with swagger. They've lost key players like Will Vaulks, Nik Prelec, and Tom Bradshaw, and there are major concerns over squad depth. This is a team in transition, and Stevenage will smell blood.