Expect Essen to line up in their usual 4-2-3-1, with Koschinat setting up to stay compact and hit on the break. They will sit deep, funnel play wide, and rely on set pieces and a lone striker to hold the ball up. The double pivot will try to screen the back four, but they will be under constant pressure. St Pauli, in their expected 4-3-3, will look to dominate the midfield with a three-man unit that can both press and play. Their full-backs will push high, their wingers will stay wide, and their number nine will stretch the centre-backs.

The key battle will be in the middle of the park. Essen's midfield two will be outnumbered and overrun. St Pauli's third midfielder will find pockets of space between the lines, and that is where the game will be won. If St Pauli can play through that press — and they should — they will create chance after chance. Essen will try to stay in the game, keep it tight, and hope for a moment of magic or a set-piece goal. But St Pauli's quality in possession and their ability to switch play quickly will stretch Essen's low block and open up gaps.

Set pieces are Essen's best hope. They are a physical side, and they will throw bodies forward on corners and free-kicks. But St Pauli are well-drilled defensively, and they have the athleticism to deal with those threats. The game state will likely be St Pauli on the front foot from the first whistle, Essen defending deep and hoping to nick something on the counter. It is a classic cup dynamic, and the favourite should prevail.