Deportivo are back in the big time, and they mean business. Antonio Hidalgo has rebuilt this squad with serious intent — Aubameyang up top, Angelino on loan from Roma, Amatucci from Fiorentina, Jensen from Bayern. That is a statement of ambition, not survival. They opened with a 1-1 draw against Elche at Abanca-Riazor, a result that felt more like a stumble than a crisis. The Galicians are unbeaten in recent outings, and the Riazor will be a bear pit for this one. Valencia, by contrast, are still finding their feet. Their only recent competitive result is a 1-2 friendly defeat to Newcastle, and they have yet to win away this season. They opened at home to Celta and were backed by our model as favourites, but the momentum is not with them. This is their first away day, and Mestalla confidence does not travel well.

Valencia have talent, no doubt. But they are a side in transition, still integrating new arrivals and shaking off the rust of a long summer. Deportivo, meanwhile, have the look of a team that believes. They have recruited smartly, they are playing at home in front of a raucous crowd, and they have a point to prove after years in the wilderness. The form gap is narrow, but the emotional edge is all Galician. We love the look of this Deportivo side — they are hungry, organised, and dangerous on the break. Valencia will need to be at their very best to leave Riazor with anything.