Rayo Vallecano head into this one off the back of a statement result — a 2-0 home win over Villarreal at the Estadio de Vallecas in mid-May. That is exactly the kind of performance that makes this side dangerous: compact, organised, and clinical on the counter. They are not a team that will dominate possession against the big boys, but they do not need to. Vallecas is a tight, intimidating ground where the crowd can carry them through spells of pressure. Still, that Villarreal result was their last competitive outing of the previous campaign, and since then we have seen nothing from them. Pre-season rust is a real thing, and facing a Real Madrid side that has already played a high-intensity friendly in early August is a different beast entirely.

Real Madrid, meanwhile, have had a full pre-season run-out already — a 2-2 draw with Fiorentina in Klagenfurt on August 1. That game told us plenty. They started like a house on fire, with Endrick opening the scoring after sharp central combination play involving Arda Güler and Federico Valverde, and Alexis Ciria doubling the lead from a Camavinga cross. They looked fluid, sharp, and ruthless in the final third. The fact they let a two-goal lead slip — conceding to Piccoli and then Moise Kean — shows they are still working on defensive solidity, but the attacking machinery is clearly oiled. For a team that has not yet hit full competitive throttle, that is a dangerous sign for Rayo.