Nice will line up in their expected 4-3-3, with Pantalloni wanting his midfield to dominate the ball and his wide forwards to pin Lille's full-backs. The problem is what happens when they lose it. Lille's 4-2-3-1 is designed to spring. Mukau and Bentaleb form a double pivot that protects the centre-backs, while Bakwa and Haraldsson drift into the half-spaces to receive on the turn. Ueda is the focal point, but the real danger is the second wave — Santos and Perraud arriving late from deep.

That is where this game tilts. Nice's 4-3-3 can be exposed in the wide areas if their full-backs push high and the midfield loses the second ball. Lille are second-ball merchants in the best sense: they win it, they play forward immediately, and they have the runners to punish a stretched back line. Expect Nice to see more of the ball early, especially at home, but expect Lille to look more dangerous every time the game breaks.

Set-pieces are another Lille edge. With Alexsandro Ribeiro and Nathan Ngoy in the predicted back line, they carry genuine aerial threat from dead balls, and Nice have shown vulnerability to crosses into the box. If the home side switch off for even one corner, the away team have the size and delivery to make it count.