Farke is expected to stick with his 3-5-2, and the back three of James Justin, Nico Elvedi and Tarik Muharemovic looks settled. The wing-backs are the key: in-form Bogle and Gabriel Gudmundsson will push high and pin Palace's wing-backs deep, turning this into a game played almost entirely in the visitors' half. Leeds will look to dominate the midfield dogfight through their extra central body, with the front two dropping into half-spaces to drag Palace's centre-backs out of shape. It is a system built on control, and against a Palace side missing its main striker, that control should be suffocating.

Palace are likely to set up in their usual 3-4-2-1 under Sage, with Wálter Benítez, Chris Richards and Takehiro Tomiyasu expected to form the back three. Adam Wharton and Quinten Timber in the double pivot will have their hands full trying to stop Leeds from knife-ing through the lines. Daichi Kamada and Yéremy Pino will operate as the two tens behind Strand Larsen, but without Mateta's physical presence and Sarr's pace in behind, the attack lacks a genuine focal point. Palace's best hope is to sit in a low block, soak up pressure and spring counter-attacks through Pino's dribbling — but that requires surviving wave after wave of Leeds pressure, and recent evidence says they will not.