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English Premier League
Sun, Sep 20 · 16:00

Leeds United

3-5-2
Leeds United
VS
Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace

3-4-2-1

Leeds United

1.78

Pick

Draw

4.10

Crystal Palace

4.70

Data Coverage

12 web news sources · analysed Sat, Sep 19 · 06:00 · sources: TheSportsDB (results) + web news + own history

Leeds United

  • Recent results: 1 game with scores
  • Coach: Daniel Farke
  • Formation: 3-5-2

Crystal Palace

  • Recent results: 1 game with scores
  • Coach: —
  • Formation: 3-4-2-1
1

Verified Prediction

Leeds United to win

Double chance cover: 1X

Variable Medium risk Injury Crisis
Analyst confidence 68%

Executive Summary

Key takeaway from match research

Leeds host Crystal Palace at Elland Road with the hosts clear favourites, and the context supports that view. Palace have lost three of four league games and go into this one without Jean-Philippe Mateta and Ismaila Sarr, while Leeds have shown control without needing goals at both ends to get results this season. Daniel Farke's side are expected to keep an unchanged lineup, with James Justin, Nico Elvedi and Tarik Muharemovic continuing at centre-back and in-form Bogle and Gudmundsson operating as wing-backs. Leeds' 3-5-2 will look to dominate territory and use the Elland Road crowd, while Palace's 3-4-2-1 will look to stay compact and counter through Strand Larsen and Pino. Home advantage and Palace's absentees make the home win the primary pick.

Key Match Factors

Primary variables influencing our model

Palace have lost three of four league games
Palace missing Mateta and Sarr through injury
Leeds showing control and defensive solidity at home

Predicted Lineups & Formations

Tactical setup based on recent team dynamics & manager preferences

Leeds United (3-5-2) Crystal Palace (3-4-2-1)
GK DEF DEF DEF DM DM DM DM AM AM FWD GK DEF DEF DEF MID MID MID MID MID FWD FWD
↑ Away Goal (Crystal Palace) ↓ Home Goal (Leeds United)

Leeds United (Home)

3-5-2
Coach: Daniel Farke
Ground: Elland Road
Country: England

Crystal Palace (Away)

3-4-2-1
Ground: Selhurst Park
Country: England

Tactical News Snippets

• Leeds vs Crystal Palace: Predictions, Picks, Odds & Lineups

• Preview: Leeds United vs Crystal Palace - prediction, team news, lineups - Sports Mole

• Leeds v Crystal Palace predicted line-ups + FPL team news

Recent Match Form

Head-to-head & last 10 competitive fixtures

Leeds United

W
Leeds United vs Augsburg 4 - 0 W

Crystal Palace

L
Fulham vs Crystal Palace 1 - 2 L

Deep Tactical Analysis

In-depth analyst breakdown, tactical matchups & outcome verdict

Form Analysis

Form & Momentum

Leeds United come into this one at Elland Road with a real sense of control about them. Daniel Farke's side have been grinding out results without needing to win shootouts, and that 4-0 friendly win over Augsburg in mid-August showed they can still turn on the style when the mood takes them. The Whites have been defensively solid, keeping things tight at both ends, and that is exactly the platform Farke wants for a home game like this. They are not blowing teams away, but they are not conceding many either, and at Elland Road that combination is worth its weight in gold.

Crystal Palace, by contrast, arrive with a bit of a wobble. They have lost three of their last four league games, and the absence of Jean-Philippe Mateta and Ismaila Sarr robs them of serious firepower in the final third. Yes, they beat Fulham 2-1 in a friendly back in August, but that feels like a distant memory now. The Eagles are missing their main striker and a key wide threat, and that is a problem when you are going to a place like Elland Road where you need to take your chances.

Tactical Battle

Systems, pressing traps & space creation

Farke is expected to stick with his 3-5-2, and the back three of James Justin, Nico Elvedi and Tarik Muharemovic looks set to continue. That trio has been building an understanding, and with in-form Bogle and Gabriel Gudmundsson operating as wing-backs, Leeds have real width and energy down the flanks. The midfield three will look to dominate the ball and squeeze Palace's 3-4-2-1, cutting off the supply lines to the front two. Leeds will press high, win second balls, and force Palace into mistakes in their own half.

Palace, under Sage, will likely set up in their usual 3-4-2-1, with Wálter Benítez in goal and a back three of Chris Richards, Takehiro Tomiyasu and Honest Ahanor. The wing-backs, Anan Khalaili and Tyrick Mitchell, will need to be disciplined because Leeds will overload those areas. Adam Wharton and Quinten Timber in the double pivot have a real job on their hands against Leeds' midfield runners. Daichi Kamada and Yéremy Pino will play off Strand Larsen, but without Mateta and Sarr, the Eagles lack a focal point and a pace merchant to stretch the Leeds back three.

Key Match Factors

Decisive statistical & situational drivers

The first factor is the absence of Mateta and Sarr for Palace. That is their two most reliable goal threats gone, and it leaves them blunt in the box.
Second, Leeds' defensive record at home: they have been keeping things tight, and Farke's back three is well-drilled.
Third, the wing-back battle: Bogle and Gudmundsson are in form and will pin Palace's wing-backs deep, turning this into a game played in Palace's half.
Fourth, the midfield dogfight: Wharton and Timber are good players, but Leeds' extra man in the middle (3-5-2 vs 3-4-2-1) gives them control.
Fifth, the Elland Road factor: this crowd smells blood when the visitors are missing key men, and Palace have lost three of four.

The Final Verdict

Final Pick

Verified analyst outcome summary

PICK: Leeds United (1) 68% Confidence

Leeds are the right call here. They are at home, they are solid, and they are facing a Palace side missing its two best attackers. The 1X double chance gives us a cushion, but honestly, the win looks the most likely outcome. Farke's men will dominate the ball, create chances, and keep a clean sheet or concede at most one. The only counter-case is that Palace have quality in midfield and could nick a goal from a set-piece, but even then, Leeds have enough to respond. If Mateta and Sarr were fit, this would be a different story, but they are not, and Leeds will smell blood at Elland Road.

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