Fulham are expected to line up in their usual 4-2-3-1 under Arbeloa, with Sander Berge and Shea Charles anchoring the double pivot. That pair will be key: they are physical, they can carry the ball through the first line, and they will look to feed the half-space runners either side of United's midfield. The brief flags a specific weakness — the space either side of Youri Tielemans when Fulham move the ball quickly. With Ugarte and Baleba out, Carrick has only Mainoo and Tielemans as central midfielders, plus a No. 10 who does not defend. That is a midfield dogfight Fulham can win if they press with discipline.

United will likely set up in a 4-2-3-1 as well, but the personnel is stretched. Carlos Baleba is in contention to make his debut, though a more realistic date is after the international break, and Matthijs de Ligt is unlikely to feature after nearly a year out with a back injury. That leaves Maguire and possibly Leny Yoro or Ayden Heaven at the back — a pairing that has been leaking goals. Bruno Fernandes is expected to return for a revenge mission, and Marcus Rashford and Benjamin Sesko offer pace and power in transition. United's threat is real on the counter, but their defensive structure is fragile. Fulham will target the spaces around Tielemans and force United's back line to defend crosses and cutbacks.

Set-pieces could be decisive. Fulham have shown they can deliver quality from wide areas, and United's zonal marking has looked shaky. If Fulham win the second-ball battle in midfield, they will pin United back and create the kind of chaos that leads to goals. The game state matters: if Fulham score first, United's confidence could crack. If United score first, Fulham have the character to respond, as they showed against Liverpool.