Fiorentina will set up in their expected 4-3-3, with David de Gea in goal and Radu Dragusin marshalling the back line. The full-backs will push high — that is the Vanoli way — but that aggression leaves gaps in behind, and Napoli have the wide runners to exploit them. The midfield three of Fagioli, Oulai and Brescianini has legs and technical quality, but against Napoli's double pivot of Lobotka and Anguissa, they risk being overrun. The battle for second balls in the middle third will decide the rhythm of this match.

Napoli will likely mirror with a 4-3-3 of their own, but their version is more controlled. McTominay's late runs into the box are a nightmare for a defence that already concedes chances for fun. Expect Napoli to sit slightly deeper, invite Fiorentina onto them, then knife through the lines on the counter. The half-space between Fiorentina's adventurous full-back and the centre-back is where this game will be won and lost. If Napoli's front three isolate Dragusin one-on-one, it is a mismatch.

Set-pieces are another lever. Fiorentina's zonal marking has looked shaky, and Napoli have the height and delivery to punish them. Every corner feels like a penalty waiting to happen.