Expect Utrecht to line up in their usual 4-2-3-1, with Barkas in goal and a back four of Vesterlund, Horemans, Eerdhuijzen, and Zagre. The double pivot of Pohl and Offerhaus will sit deep, trying to screen a defence that's looked vulnerable. De Wit pulls the strings in the number ten role, with Cathline and Alarcon providing width. Stepanov leads the line, but he'll be feeding on scraps if AZ control the tempo. Utrecht's wing-backs will push forward — that's their nature — but it leaves gaps in behind.

AZ will mirror that 4-2-3-1, but they do it better. With Clasie missing, Kwakman and Koopmeiners form the double pivot — a younger, more energetic pairing that can break lines with a pass or a carry. Their wide players will tuck inside, dragging Utrecht's full-backs out of position and opening up the half-spaces. This is where the game will be won. If AZ's midfield can play through Utrecht's first line of pressure, they'll create chance after chance. Utrecht's adventurous wing-backs become a liability, not an asset.