Espanyol come into this one as the clear heavyweight. They are a La Liga club, playing at the RCDE Stadium, and even if their recent friendly against Sabadell ended 1-1, that result tells you more about pre-season rust than about the gap in class. The Catalans have top-flight quality running through their squad, and at home they will expect to boss possession and create chances against a side from a lower division. The brief shows Espanyol have been steady in pre-season, competitive in that Sabadell draw, and the history of our picks has consistently backed them at home against weaker opposition — with confidence ratings in the 60s and 70s. That is not a fluke. That is a pattern.

Mirandés, meanwhile, are the underdogs here, and the data is thinner than a winter pitch in July. We know they play at the Estadio Municipal de Anduva, a proper little fortress in the lower leagues, but this game is not at Anduva. It is at Espanyol's place. Their recent 3-1 win over Granada in La Liga 2 shows they can score, but that was at home, against a side that has been yo-yoing between divisions. On the road, against a La Liga side, the step up in quality is massive. The brief gives us no recent away form, no coach, no formation — just the sense that Mirandés are a competitive second-tier outfit who will fight, but who are out of their depth here.