Bournemouth are in a mess. Not a tactical mess, but a medical one. The injury list reads like a war report: Julian Araujo, Eli Kroupi, Amine Adli, Veljko Milosavljevic all out, Ryan Christie suspended, and a whole second wave of doubts in Julio Soler, David Brooks, Alvaro Rodriguez and Juanlu Sanchez. That is not a squad, that is a triage unit. And yet, the Cherries still have Antoine Semenyo, the man who scored 10 goals last season with 27 shots on target. He is the focal point, the one genuine spark in a depleted attack. At home, with the Vitality Stadium behind them, Bournemouth still carry a threat. But make no mistake — this is a team running on fumes and adrenaline.

Everton, by contrast, look almost serene. Only Timothy Iroegbunam is ruled out, with Christian Norgaard a doubt. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and Iliman Ndiaye keep their places from a recent win, and the spine of Pickford, Tarkowski and Branthwaite is intact. They drew 1-1 with Lille in pre-season, beat Newcastle 3-1, and look settled under a clear 4-2-3-1 shape. The Toffees are not flashy, but they are organised, physical and hard to break down. On paper, this is a mismatch — but football is not played on paper. Bournemouth's desperation at home is a real force, and that is exactly why we are backing the home side with a 1X safety net.