This is where the game will be won and lost. Birmingham's 4-3-3 will look to overload the flanks and whip crosses into the box, but Middlesbrough's 4-2-3-1 is designed to frustrate exactly that. The double pivot in Boro's midfield will sit deep, cutting off passing lanes and forcing Birmingham into hopeful balls over the top. The key battle will be in the half-spaces — if Birmingham's advanced eights can find pockets between Boro's midfield and defence, they could unlock the door. But Middlesbrough's back four, protected by those two holding midfielders, are likely to stay compact and disciplined.

Out wide, Birmingham's wingers will try to isolate the full-backs, but Boro's wide players are expected to track back diligently, creating a five-man defensive block when needed. The away side will look to hit on the break, using the pace of their front three to exploit the space behind Birmingham's adventurous full-backs. Set-pieces could be a deciding factor: Birmingham have shown they can be vulnerable from dead balls, while Middlesbrough possess the height and delivery to capitalise. The game state will likely see Birmingham with more possession, but Boro looking the more dangerous on the counter.