Expect Simeone to set his side up in that classic 4-4-2, narrow and compact, with the wide midfielders tucking in to make a midfield dogfight. Cardoso and Hjulmand are the double pivot that breaks up play and starts counters with one touch. Kang-in Lee is the half-space runner who knifes through lines, and Lookman gives them the option to stretch the pitch when they need it. Villarreal will try to play out from the back in their 4-3-3, but Atletico's pressing trap is designed to force errors in exactly those areas. The Yellow Submarine's full-backs will be pinned back by Lookman and the overlapping Sola, and their midfield three will be outnumbered in the central zones.

The game state is predictable: Atletico sit in a mid-block, invite Villarreal to have the ball, then hit them on the break with Alvarez's runs in behind. Villarreal's centre-backs — one of them coming back from a long ACL layoff — will be terrified of that pace. Set pieces are another layer: Gimenez and Le Normand are aerial monsters, and Atletico win the second balls in the box. Villarreal will have spells of possession, but it will be sterile, sideways, and exactly what Simeone wants. The longer it stays 0-0, the more the home crowd pushes, and the more Villarreal's nerve frays.