Real Madrid arrive at the Metropolitano as the sharper, more settled side, and the numbers back it up. Second in La Liga on 15 points, three behind Barcelona, Mourinho's men have already absorbed the season's first punch — that 1-0 slip at Real Betis — and answered it emphatically, beating Inter Milan in the Champions League before stringing together league wins over Rayo Vallecano and Elche. That is the response of a team with a spine. They are not blowing sides away, but they are controlling matches, managing risk, and grinding out the results that keep them within touching distance of the summit. Momentum is a real thing in a derby, and right now it is wearing white.

Atletico, by contrast, come into this one with more questions than answers. Simeone's side have been juggling the demands of a Champions League trip to Anfield — where they were missing Alexander Sorloth to a muscle injury — and the domestic grind, and the chopping and changing between a back three and a 4-4-2 suggests a manager still searching for his best eleven. The predicted lineups reflect that uncertainty: one outlet has them in a 3-4-2-1 with Jonathan David leading the line, another in a 4-4-2 with Ademola Lookman alongside him. When a Simeone team is unsettled, the Metropolitano can still be a fortress, but the edge that usually defines them is blunted.