Simeone is expected to set up in his familiar 3-4-2-1, with Jan Oblak behind a back three of Marc Pubill, Cristian Romero and David Hancko. The wing-back pairing of Giuliano Simeone and Alejandro Grimaldo will be asked to provide width, but the real battle is in the middle. Marcos Llorente and Morten Hjulmand in the double pivot will look to disrupt, screen and spring counter-attacks. Ahead of them, Kang-In Lee and Alex Baena will drift into half-spaces, looking to feed Jonathan David, who is likely to lead the line on his own. It is a shape built to absorb pressure and strike on the break.

Mourinho, predictably, will set up his Real Madrid in a 4-3-3, and the emphasis will be on control. The return of Arda Guler and Marc Cucurella, plus Aurelien Tchouameni anchoring the midfield, gives Los Blancos a nice blend of creativity and steel. Tchouameni sitting deep allows the full-backs to push high and the wide forwards to pin Atletico's wing-backs back. That is the key tactical lever here: if Real can pin Grimaldo and Simeone deep, Atletico's counter-attacking threat is halved. Mourinho will know that. He will also know that Atletico's back three can be dragged around by quick switches of play, and Real have the passing range to do it.

Set-pieces could be Atletico's best route to goal. Romero and Hancko are genuine aerial threats, and Baena's delivery is dangerous. But Real Madrid are no mugs in the air either, and with Tchouameni screening the zone, they should cope. The likely game state is Atletico sitting deep, Real dominating the ball, and the home side looking to spring David in behind. It is a classic Simeone-Mourinho chess match, and the first goal is going to be absolutely massive.