FORM ANALYSIS Alaves come into this one off the back of a thumping 3-0 friendly win over Castellon at the end of July. That result, even in a warm-up, tells you the dressing room is sharp. The Basque side looked fluid, ruthless in front of goal, and the clean sheet will have the backline buzzing. There is real momentum around Mendizorroza right now, and home supporters will expect that energy to carry straight into the league opener. Getafe, by contrast, have only managed a narrow 1-0 friendly win over Reading in mid-July. That is hardly a statement of intent. The Madrid side are notoriously stubborn and organised, but they have not shown much attacking spark in recent outings. Away from the Coliseum, they tend to sit deep and dare you to break them down. That can work, but it also invites pressure, and Alaves will smell blood in front of their own fans. Neither side has a confirmed coach or formation in the research, so we are working with the broader picture. But the vibes are clear: Alaves are the side with the wind in their sails. Getafe will be compact, gritty, and hard to beat — that is their DNA — but they have not given us any reason to believe they can come to Vitoria-Gasteiz and take all three points. TACTICAL BATTLE Expect Alaves to line up in a familiar 4-4-2 or 4-2-3-1, looking to press high and force Getafe into mistakes. The home side will want to dominate the midfield dogfight, win second balls, and get bodies into the box. With the crowd behind them, they will push Getafe deep and try to turn the game into a series of set-piece and cross-and-header opportunities. Getafe, as ever, will likely set up in a low block — a 4-4-2 or 5-4-1 — designed to frustrate. They will concede possession willingly, stay narrow, and look to hit on the break through quick transitions. Their game plan is simple: keep it tight, nick a goal from a corner or a counter, and grind out a result. That is a dangerous trap for any home side, but Alaves have the tools to unlock it if they are patient. The key battle will be in the wide areas. Alaves need their full-backs to get high and stretch Getafe’s back line, while their wingers must be brave in one-v-one situations. Getafe will try to double up and force play back inside, where their central midfielders can snuff out danger. If Alaves get width and early crosses into the box, they will cause real problems. KEY FACTORS The first factor is home advantage at Mendizorroza — a ground where Alaves are traditionally tough to beat, and the 3-0 friendly win suggests they are already clicking. Second, Getafe’s lack of attacking threat in recent games: one goal in a friendly against Reading is not enough to scare anyone. Third, the set-piece battle — both sides are physical, but Alaves’ height and delivery could be the difference against a deep-lying Getafe defence. Fourth, the early-season factor: teams are still finding rhythm, and the side with more sharpness — Alaves, based on that recent result — will have the edge. Finally, Getafe’s tendency to settle for a draw on the road means they may park the bus and hope for a point, which plays into the double chance cover. VERDICT This is the trap game, and we are not falling for it. Alaves are at home, in form, and facing a Getafe side that has shown nothing in attack. The visitors will make it ugly, but that is exactly why the double chance on Alaves or the draw is the smart play. We are not saying Alaves will blow Getafe away — that is not how these games work — but they should have enough to avoid defeat, and a narrow win is the most likely outcome. The honest counter-case is that Getafe are masters of the 0-0 and can frustrate anyone, especially early in the season. But even a draw keeps our pick alive, and we do not see Getafe winning this. Alaves have the momentum, the crowd, and the sharper recent form. Do not overthink it — back the home side to at least avoid defeat, and expect them to push for all three points.